Global employers are maintaining a stable hiring Outlook to start 2026 according to ManpowerGroup’s latest Employment Outlook Survey of more than 39,000 employers across 41 countries. The global Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for the first quarter of 2026 stands at 24%, down 4% year-over-year but rising 4% from the previous quarter.
While 40% of organizations plan to increase staff in Q1, 40% plan to maintain current headcount, and 16% expect to reduce workforce levels.
Among those expanding, the top motivators are organizational growth (37%) and investment in new business areas (26%). Just 19% of new hires are backfilling recent departures, signaling that employers are evolving roles to respond to existing needs vs simply refilling positions.
For those planning headcount reductions, 29% cite economic challenges, 24% say market changes have reduced demand for some roles, and 22% report they are reducing staff to meet current demand. By contrast, only two in ten employers (20%) point to automation, reinforcing that economic conditions, not technology, are driving hiring hesitation.
“What we’re seeing is employers responding to the economic signals with a measured and deliberate approach. Over the past nine quarters, the global Outlook has averaged 24%, reflecting a labor market that remains resilient even as the broader economic environment continues to evolve. Hiring is steady because organizations still need human skills to grow, but they are being very intentional about where they invest in additional talent,” said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup Chair & CEO. “AI will be a powerful driver of productivity in the coming years, but today the economic climate is shaping hiring decisions. Employers are prioritizing specific roles and capabilities needed to meet current demands.”
The slowdown is most pronounced among the largest organizations. Employers with 5,000+ employees report the weakest Outlook (21%), down 9% points quarter-over-quarter and 25% year-over-year. Mid-sized companies (250–999 employees) are the most optimistic, posting a 28% Outlook for Q1.
